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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.